BREAKING: U.S. Election 2020: The four states everyone is watching now

It was an election like no other thanks to COVID-19, and as the votes come in, it’s becoming clear that election night is just the beginning of the end of it. An unprecedented number of Americans voted by mail, a practice Democrats encouraged and Republicans criticized, without evidence, as insecure and ripe for fraud. Some states reported mail-in and early votes first, but a handful of key battlegrounds are still counting them. With results neck and neck, it might take days to decisively declare a winner—and since Democrats were more likely to mail in their votes, the final tally may look significantly different at the end of that process. Here’s a look at what’s going on in four key states, three in the industrial heartland and a fourth surprise in the South.

Wisconsin

The Democrats held this state for decades until Donald Trump won it by a narrow margin in 2016. Joe Biden has been consistently polling ahead of Trump there and posted a slim lead of 0.6 points with 97 per cent of ballots counted just before noon Wednesday. Officials in Wisconsin have their work cut out for them—the state’s 1,800-plus municipalities are responsible for conducting their own elections, rather than running them through a central office like most states. Clerks weren’t allowed to start counting ballots until polls opened on election day, but Gov. Tony Evers has said he hopes to be able to report full results by the end of the day Wednesday.

Michigan

Michigan is a state of contradictions: A labour union stronghold and a bastion of American gun culture, with a Democrat for a governor and a far-right paramilitary group—one of several in the state—whose members concocted a thwarted plot to kidnap said governor because of her COVID-19 lockdown measures. Like Wisconsin, Michigan went solidly Democrat in presidential elections for decades until Trump came along, winning it by just over 10,000 votes in 2016. And like Wisconsin, Biden had been consistently polling ahead of Trump. As of noon Wednesday, Biden was leading by 0.7 points with 92 per cent of votes counted. Michigan election officials were only allowed to start counting ballots 10 hours before election day and the state expects to be one of the last states to report results, predicting it will be Friday or later. A possible Supreme Court challenge around when ballots can be received and still be counted could tie things up even longer.

Pennsylvania

Pennsylvania is the big, fat electoral college prize of the rust belt, with 20 electoral college votes. And Trump polled better there than he did in other states in the region. As of noon Wednesday, Trump was up nine points, with 79 per cent of ballots counted. Voters have returned about 1.4 million absentee ballots in the state, but like Wisconsin and Michigan, election officials were legally prevented from counting them early. Data from the secretary of state released early Wednesday morning suggest those absentee voters were overwhelmingly Democrats, which means that nine-point Trump lead is likely to narrow or flip. The state has said it expects to be able to report a final result by the end of the week.

Georgia

Georgia! A key tossup state in a presidential election! This year is just full of surprises. The southern state hasn’t voted for a Democrat for president since 1992, but as of late Wednesday morning, Trump was up just two points with 92 per cent of votes tallied. Georgia’s 2020 election experience has been rocky, with long lines and technical difficulties plaguing both voting and ballot counting. With 16 electoral college votes, Georgia could be key to tipping the balance in favour of a winner, but it’s likely to be at least a couple of days before officials can report a final result.